Why LNG fell 11% since Oct 30
Down 11% from Oct 30 to Nov 10.
- Our sources do not explain the move yet.
- The S&P 500 fell 0.4% over the same days.
Down 11% from Oct 30 to Nov 10.
LNG's Quality Score rose 2 points on Tue, Nov 10, to 12. Its price is above its average prices of the last 8, 21, 50, and 200 days, which line up in that order (3 chart checks started).
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| The company | Sales up 22% on the year |
| Latest filing | 8-K, Nov 3 |
“Crude oil prices fall below $90 a barrel as Vance blames GOP election defeat on Iran war”
LNG closed −6.2% that day.
After its last 4 reports it closed +2.8% on average, higher 3 of 4 times.
Above Averagefor quality, not price, 5 of 14 chart checks firingWhat the Quality Score means
LNG is #2 of 10 by Quality Score.
| Rank | Stock | Quality Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | ||
| 2 | ||
| 4 | ||
| Open for its score | ||
| Open for its score | ||
| Open for its score |
Free cash flow over four quarters: LNG $3.79B, ATO -$2.02B, VG -$6.99B.
Expected to report Thu Feb 25, before the open (in 107 days).
What an earnings report is: every 3 months, a company tells everyone how much it sold and earned. We read the figures, the outlook, and how the stock moved after.
Sales of $6.2B, 39% more than a year ago; a profit of $5.65 a share, from $4.75.
“Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA 3 increased approximately $292 million and $1.1 billion for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2026, respectively, as compared to the corresponding 2025 periods, due to higher total margins on LNG delivered, driven by higher volumes recognized in income as well higher margins per MMBtu of LNG delivered during the period.”
| Line | Q3 2026 | Q2 2026 | Q3 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liquefied Natural Gas | $6.1B | $5.6B | $4.3B |
Each quarter's sales and their share of its total. Figures as filed (SEC filing, Oct 29)
| Measure | Figure |
|---|---|
| Consolidated adjusted EBITDA | $8.75B to $9.25B |
“The decrease for the nine months ended September 30, 2026 is primarily due to $3.6 billion of unfavorable variances related to the changes in the fair value of our derivative instruments, predominantly related to our long-term Integrated Production Marketing (“IPM”) agreements (before tax and non-controlling interests), and partially offset primarily by higher volumes recognized in income and to a lesser extent higher margins per MMBtu of LNG delivered during the period, as well as the recognition of a nonrecurring excise tax credit during the 2026 period.”
From its results filing (SEC filing · Oct 29)
Sales grew 16% a year over 5 years, fiscal 2020 to 2025.
Pays $2.50 a share a year.
| Reported | Gap | Reaction | 5 days |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 29, 2026 | +5.5% | +7.1% | -1.9% |
| Aug 6, 2026 | +5.0% | +4.3% | +5.2% |
| May 7, 2026 | -8.1% | -5.6% | -8.4% |
Sales grew in four of the last seven years, to $20B in 2025. It made a profit in six of the eight years.
RSI 51.6, MACD below signal, above both averages. Not scored.
One trade disclosed in the last six months. The newest:
Officers and directors with a Form 4 in the last 12 months.
In ETFs: LNG is 0.1% of DGRO and under 0.1% of VTI, the most of the 24 funds Breakaway covers, by each fund's latest filing, Jun 30 to Jul 31, 2026.
Cheniere Energy is a liquefied natural gas producer with two facilities in Corpus Christi, Texas, and Sabine Pass, Louisiana. It generates most of its revenue through long-term contracts with customers on a fixed- and variable-fee payout structure. It also generates revenue by selling uncontracted LNG to customers on a short-term or one-time basis. A subsidiary, Cheniere Energy Partners, owns the Sabine Pass facility and trades as a master limited partnership.
“Despite the long term nature of our SPAs, when SPL, CCL or Cheniere Marketing need to replace or amend any existing SPA or enter into new SPAs, they will compete with each other and other natural gas liquefaction projects throughout the world primarily on the basis of price per contracted volume of LNG at that time, as well as attributes such as commercial innovation, reliable production and customer-focused operations to provide flexible and tailored solutions to LNG buyers.”
LNG scores 12 today, which Breakaway calls Above Average. It is #2 of 10 in Natural Gas Distribution by Quality Score, with 5 of 14 chart checks firing. Down 11% from Oct 30 to Nov 10. Breakaway does not say whether to buy any stock: the score does not know your situation, and it is not a recommendation to buy or sell anything. Please do your own research.
LNG scores 12 today, which Breakaway calls Above Average (11 to 14). That is #2 of 10 in Natural Gas Distribution by Quality Score. The score adds up the chart checks, the trend, the company's filed sales, its profits, the news, insider trades, and Congress trades. The section above lists the lines behind LNG's 12.
Expected to report Thu Feb 25, before the open, a date Breakaway expects from the company's usual timing; the company has not confirmed it. LNG closed higher after 3 of its last 4 reports. Past behavior, not a forecast.
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Insider and Congress trades, the chart, and the financials, in one score.
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